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Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to forced migration on a scale unseen since the Second World War. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), by mid–2024 the number of people from Ukraine who had received temporary protection in European countries (excluding Russia and Belarus) and in North America exceeded 5.2 million, including nearly one million in Poland. The prospect of Ukraine’s European integration brings with it the challenge of a further outflow of people who, once granted European citizenship, will gain the right to live, work and study freely in a united Europe.

For Ukraine, whose population is rapidly declining due to negative demographic trends and massive forced emigration caused by the war, the return of compatriots to their homeland is a strategic task. For Poland, on the other hand, whose significant spending on supporting refugees from Ukraine is already bringing positive economic effects, it is in the national interest to harness the potential of the Ukrainian diaspora in the Polish labour market.

Reconciling the interests of the three main actors in the migration process – that is, the country of origin, the destination country and the migrants themselves – requires a clear definition of those interests, precise data on the scale of migration, and reasonable public policies developed in consultation with relevant stakeholders. This report aims to contribute to that goal by outlining the current migration situation of Ukraine, analysing possible scenarios for its future development, and providing recommendations for both Polish and Ukrainian migration policy.