Is the cooling of Polish-Ukrainian relations just a local historical dispute, or a sign of deeper rivalry over the future of Europe? In his analysis Edwin Bendyk explores how Ukraine’s internal transformation in the fifth year of the war is reshaping the balance of power with Warsaw, Europe, and the US.
The analysis highlights the growing asymmetry in perceptions of the war in Ukraine and in Poland – for Ukrainians, the war is an existential issue, whilst Poles are primarily seeking to avoid a direct confrontation.
Edwin Bendyk describes how the changes taking place in Ukraine in the fifth year of the war are shaping a new asymmetry and balance of power in relations with Warsaw, Europe and the US. Ukrainians are prepared to fight to the end. Poles (and others) want to avoid war at all costs, so they are preparing for it – he summarises this difference.
Kyiv’s determination and aspirations are underpinned by a genuine modernisation breakthrough, reform of military structures and a surge in technological innovation on the front line. Despite severe losses, the Ukrainian economy remains stable, and its own industrial base – which already meets over half the army’s requirements – is becoming a key driver of resistance. Edwin Bendyk illustrates this breakthrough with hard data: “During the war, the Ukrainian defence industry has increased its production capacity 50-fold, from one billion dollars in 2022 to 50 billion today”. He sums up Ukraine’s current geopolitical situation by writing that a year and a half after Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s memorable meeting with Donald Trump at the White House, it turns out that Ukraine is not losing the war after all, and Zelenskyy himself holds quite a few cards in his hand.
Militarily and technologically strengthened, Ukraine is gaining a strong, independent sense of its own agency and redefining its geopolitical objectives. With an army comprising over 100 brigades, Kyiv sees itself as a key provider of security for the entire Old Continent and expects to be treated as an equal partner by its western neighbours.
At the same time, as Edwin Bendyk points out, the authorities in Kyiv should not expect Poland or Romania to base their own security on Ukrainian optimism and the conviction that victory is possible. Polish elites, for their part, must abandon the anachronistic belief in their own strategic superiority. Warsaw now needs a new approach to relations with Kyiv, one free from cyclical emotional outbursts.
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